Monday, March 29, 2010

Global Warming Might Help Padres' Cold Bats

For the past two seasons the San Diego Padres' offense has finished at the bottom of the major leagues. But the team's fans can take heart, help might finally be on the way. According to a new study published by the University of California at Berkeley, the rising temperatures associated with dangerous global warming should also extend to the Padres' cold bats, improving the team's chances of making the playoffs.

"The devastating effects of global warming include melting polar ice caps, rising ocean levels, altered ecosystems, accelerated extinction of species, disrupted food supplies, and the downward spiral of economies," reported the study, published last week by UC-Berkeley's Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management. "But there is a silver lining here: The earth's widespread rising temperatures should also heat up the Padres' bats--even David Eckstein's ice cold bat."

While the study concluded that it might take "up to two decades" for the Padres' bats to heat up enough to make a run at the playoffs, some evidence shows global warming is already having a positive impact on the team's offense. The study cited data showing that the Padres' bats did exhibit mild warming last year, moving from 30th out of 30 teams in 2008, up to 29th in 2009.
The earth's rising temperatures could put the San Diego Zoo's polar bear exhibit on thin ice, but global warming could also be a boon for the city's professional baseball team.

The scientific community seems to be in agreement on the issue of global warming heating up the Padres' cold bats. However, not everyone is convinced. ESPN's Tim Kurkjian counts himself among the skeptics. "We all know that the Padres' only good hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, is going to be traded away by the All-Star break," explained Kurkjian, "so if anything, in the second half of 2010 we should expect the Padres' bats to experience further cooling."


Pauly said...

you gotta show me how to make captions for your photos. I cant figure it out

Greg said...

There should be a button in your blogger editor that looks something like "tT" and it allows you to adjust font size. So I just write text beneath the photo and then shrink that text's size. You can also play around with centering (or left and right adjusting) text and images. Feel free to call if you need any other help.

Chairman said...

Pauly - actually, this post is one reason why I actually preferred JimmyDix's end of the trade to your end. If/when Gonzalez gets moved, that can only help out his offensive numbers. Plus, Morales has only had one season of being good, whereas Gonzalez has been doing it for 4 years now.

I think that the calculus on this one requires how long you think it will take for Heyward + Morales > Gonzalez + Adam LaRoche (or some equivalent jabrone you'd be able to get in the 21st round)... of course when you take Marlon Byrd with that pick in the 1st, then it's sort of hard to win the trade.

Actually - one interesting question. Looking back, if you knew that Chapman was available at #5, do you still make that trade?

Pauly said...

Chairman -- I would make that trade 100 times over and twice on Sunday. Heyward is nicknamed "George Herman" around these parts. And I still maintain that giving up Valverde for him was a steal.

While I thought Chapman would be gone by pick 5, I really thought Heyward was an 80% better pick than anyone else.

And why does Morales get no love at 27 coming off a 30-plus HR season? Adrian Gonzalez is good, but he has no lineup protection and plays in the worst hitters park in the majors. I actually project Morales to have the better season (barring an Adrian trade to another team).

Chairman said...

Pauly - I think that the concern w/ Morales is that there's a lot of variance in there. If you're estimating value, you have to increase the weighting of a total flame-out season. And the relative high age decrease the weighting of performance at significantly higher tier. Once someone's done it for a few years, then you have a good idea of where he'll be.

With regard to the trade, even if you count Morales = Gonzalez, the math from your end is Valverde + the best available pick at #5 versus Heyward. It's one thing to figure out whether you've "won" the trade w/ JimmyDix (which once you realize that the pick is Byrd, means that you've already won), but it's entirely another thing to determine if you've "won" the trade, versus an optimal move (such as drafting Chapman, or whoever).