Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Everybody's team is awesome in April

Truth be told, when I get done drafting my fantasy baseball team every year I usually feel pretty good about it. After all, I hand-picked these players myself and, compared to most Major League rosters, my team looks like the '27 Yankees.

Then the season starts...

...and then the excuses...

Of course, I'm not alone in this process. Many fantasy baseball owners could probably relate.

Regarding this topic, Patrick DiCaprio over at The Fantasy Baseball Generals had an interesting post titled "Why Most Owners Think They Have A Good Team In April."

DiCaprio starts out his post by wondering aloud why owners always think they had a good draft, despite the actual merits of their team. He then takes a crack at explaining why this is the case:
Each owner will have his own differences of opinion with even their own methodology, which is to be expected. For example, one of the RotoTimes readers may differ with the RotoTimes projection on Ryan Howard, or Daisuke Matsuzaka. So even in the context of their individual methodology every owner has his own subjective judgments that color his draft or auction.
It is these subjective judgments that pose the biggest barrier to team evaluation. Each owner is viewing his team through two prisms, that of the overarching methodology of their basic projection method, and that of their own subjective judgment.
It is this subjective judgment that plays the biggest role. Every owner, no matter how skilled, thinks that their judgment is to be trusted.
Regardless of the reasons why, it's true that most fantasy baseball owners think they have a good team in April. Fortunately, for better or for worse, we all eventually start to see the truth... usually sometime in May. ;-)

3 comments:

Chairman said...

Well, my team looks awesome in April because I'm in first place. Of course, last year, I thought that my team looked awesome, even though I was in 2nd to last.

But, my delusions of grandeur aside, there are lots of things that drive this. I think that the one that comes to mind is that we is that we just think that we're smarter than we are. Few people are able to look at things objectively when they're involved (or even when they're not involved). But, if you can pull that off, you will be at an advantage.

Greg said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Greg said...

...there are lots of things that drive this. I think that the one that comes to mind is that we just think that we're smarter than we are.

Well, speak for yourself. Even though I'm 30 points down, my team still has potential. (I hand-picked these players myself.)

Of course, if I'm still down 30 points in May, then I might start to reconsider... maybe... ;-)