Draft postmortem

So we had the UPL draft yesterday. It was fun as usual, but it was also a reminder of how the more things change, the more they stay the same.

For starters, I showed up to spring training out of shape. Every year I say to myself, "Two weeks before the draft I'm going to start preparing." But what really happens is that my preparation is minimal until I wake up early on draft day and read what I can. I'm kind of like Shaquille O'Neal in the sense that I just play myself into shape. It's probably not until the middle of May that I have a solid grasp of who's who on each team, which farm systems have the top prospects, and how that all applies to the fantasy baseball decisions I should have been making the first six weeks of the season. By that time I've either caught lightning in a bottle and my team is a force to reckon with, or I'm mired in 7th place and posting poor imitations of Weird Al songs on the message board.

In other draft news, Westy and Benver were no-shows again. (And they both were the first to complain about their teams on the message board--again.) Phatsnapper told us how many fantasy leagues he's in--again. ISSC drafted the entire Red Sox roster--again. JimmyDix nearly drafted the entire White Sox roster (and will likely trade for "the ones who got away")--again. C-Lauff took Albert Pujols with his first pick--again. Whenever someone with either unproven talent or a culturally diverse name (or both) was picked, Roland never missed the opportunity to ask, "Who the hell is that?"--again. And I had about half of my picks openly questioned or even mocked--again.

To that last point, that's actually one of my favorite aspects of fantasy baseball. In the real world, it's rather difficult to get honest feedback from people. But in an online draft room or message board about a game, well, people just let it fly; and in that context, I'm all about honest feedback, putdowns, and outright taunting.

Getting back to how I prepare the morning of the draft, I do come up with some lists for each position, but they're not long. In fact, I usually only have a few names of players that "I like" at each position. And by "like," I'm referring to whether or not the value they provide matches up with the round I can draft them in. (For example, last year I scratched Albert Pujols from my 1B choices. Although, I'm not sure which was dumber: Scratching Pujols from my list or reminding you that I did.)

Admittedly, this year was tougher for me to come up with my player rankings. That could be because there were seemingly more injuries to star players, or it could be that the more I learn about fantasy baseball the more I don't know.

I picked 8th in the first round and could have gone in a few different directions. I think Ryan Braun was the highest Y!-rated player still on the board, but I went with Ryan Howard. Before the draft I noticed that Howard's 48 jacks last season cleared the field by 8--and he would be returning this season to a similar situation (same championship-caliber team minus the inconsistent Pat Burrell). Furthermore, I had read that Howard came into spring training in better shape than usual and is focused on getting off to a fast April start (which he hasn't done the past two seasons). This, of course, doesn't mean he'll get off to a fast April start. Heck, it doesn't even mean he'll do as well as last year. But at the end of the day, he's had a great track record for power numbers the past three seasons, and he's a proven winner. I do recognize that his numbers have been dropping and his OBP was relatively low last season, but hey, that's why he's not a top 5 pick.

Rather than give my reasoning for each pick, I'll just show my team here:

C Victor Martinez (1B)
1B Ryan Howard
2B Mike Aviles (SS)
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Stephen Drew
OF Carlos Beltran
OF Manny Ramirez
OF Justin Upton
Util Milton Bradley
Util Conor Jackson (1B, OF)

SP Dan Haren
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Joe Saunders

RP Joe Nathan
RP Brian Wilson
RP Chad Qualls
RP Troy Percival

BN Pablo Sandoval (C, 3B, OF)
BN Ian Stewart (2B, 3B)

Note: Rajai Davis, Eric Byrnes, Wandy Rodriguez, and Dana Eveland have been excluded from the above list in order to make my draft look less sucky.)

Some years I feel pretty good after the draft. If I've accumulated nearly all of my targeted players and have seemingly built a team without any glaring weaknesses, then I'm happy. I don't think I've ever had a draft where I haven't second-guessed a pick immediately afterward, but I have had drafts where I felt that I did really well.

This year it was a mixed bag for me. On offense, I think we've got a great shot at putting up competitive power numbers. But my team is lacking in speed, and the past few champions have been very competitive in steals. I'm less happy with my pitching, but it might turn out okay. I could have done much worse than Haren as my #1 starter and Nathan as my #1 closer. But after those two guys, things get dicey. Maybe I should have reached for Matt Capps and Joakim Soria--especially Soria in a keeper league. Should I have taken Roy Oswalt instead of Vazquez? In hindsight, probably. But Vazquez will have more K's and who knows how he'll do in a new environment. (Plus I'm just now learning that Oswalt has been much healthier the past five seasons than I had realized.)

A few final comments on my team. I do think that I've drafted enough to be dangerous. If my team gets off to a hot start (and let's face it, any team could get off to a hot start), then more options will become available to me in the way of trades and/or knowing what I need to grab from the waiver wire. I also like the versatility of my team. For the infield, I have at least two players with eligibility at each position (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS). And with Victor Martinez as my catcher, he'll actually be playing a lot at 1B and DH. So not only will that mean he should tire out less, but his manager has gone on record saying he'll find a way to get Martinez in the lineup every day. (Here's hoping that come September I won't be -30 games at catcher.)

So who do I think had the best draft? Well, after reviewing the tape, I was startled to see the batting lineup of the Black Sox. My best chance at outdoing his offensive production might be to buy him off. But the Black Sox seemed less fortunate on the pitching side. As such, I've got to go with the Thugs. On paper, his team looks the best heading into this season. His starting pitching and bullpen are loaded, and it looks like he'll have enough on offense.

Let the games begin.

The calm before the storm

When I wake up the morning of the fantasy baseball draft, I feel like a kid on Christmas Day ready to rip into all of his presents. Sure, I have some ideas as to what I might get, but there also will be a few surprises along the way.

As I type this post I already feel the adrenaline starting to simmer. Once the draft starts on Saturday morning, I'll have a good adrenaline rush going and the time will fly by.

This year it's a keeper league, so that alters the strategy--and raises the stakes. This draft will be our most important one yet.

As a blogger, most people on the Internet only know me for the words I write. They don't know what I look like or how I act in "real life." This year I've decided to start changing that by posting videos where I share some of my innermost thoughts. As such, today I got together with a few friends who helped me make an amateur music video. It's based on a song that I wrote last night when I couldn't sleep. In this song I express my raw emotions for this upcoming draft. I know this video is not much, but it's the best my friends and I could do on such short notice. I hope you like it...

'Tis the season for giving

In the spirit of Christmas, I figured that it was time to give a gift on this blog. But not just any gift. Yes, you guessed it… it’s time for another prestigious award.

I usually steer clear of politics on this blog, so please forgive me as I give a brief background for this award. Back in 2007, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton launched her campaign to become the first woman elected President of the United States. She began her campaign letting the voters in our great country know that she wanted to have a “conversation” with us. She wanted us, as Americans, to explore ideas together and have an open and honest dialogue.

While Senator Clinton’s campaign for president ultimately fell short, her conversation continues to this day. Last month, President-elect Barack Obama nominated Clinton to be U.S. Secretary of State where she will be able to continue this conversation all around the globe.

The My Baseball Fantasy blog recognizes Senator Hillary Clinton as our country’s soon-to-be top diplomat who, above all else, is committed to the conversation and just so happens to be a lifelong Yankees fan, too. For these reasons, and others, I am proud to unveil the most prestigious award this blog has ever bestowed upon a reader: “The Hillary Clinton Conversation Award.”

The “Hillary Clinton Conversation Award” (or “Hillary” for short) goes to reader who, over the course of the year, adds the most to the baseball conversation on this blog. While this award favors quality over quantity, a poster’s entire body of work (for that year) is considered.

Deciding who would win the Hillary this year was an extremely difficult task. Having never done this before, I first tried various subjective methods to calculate points and kept getting a different winner each time. As such, I was essentially stuck with a four-way tie. With it being Christmas and all, I thought that would actually be a nice story—just give the first-ever Hillary to all four of my readers. But then I thought, “No, this award needs to have some integrity.”

So how to break the tie?

Just when all seemed hopeless, I remembered a post of mine from late July. It was titled, “What if?” In it, I pondered what a regular MLB fan should do if they just so happened to be in the dugout when a bench-clearing brawl breaks out. I was careful not to say too much in the post, because I wanted to see how readers would connect the dots on their own.

In reality, the situation I described in the “What if” post gives the reader only two choices: Stay in the dugout and break from the brotherhood—a dishonor so disgraceful that your entire experience would be wrecked; or save face and go out there and get your butt totally kicked in.

Now some people might say, “I’ll go out there and really hold my own!” Well, not so fast. First off, remember that you’re a regular fan. MLB players are professional athletes, and regular fans are not. Even the journeymen are professional athletes. Just because a guy has a .216 batting average or a 6.83 ERA doesn’t mean you could “hold your own” with them in a fight. You’d get your ass kicked. Badly.

On the other hand, others might say, "I'd just stay in the dugout." Well, okay, you'd only be breaking the most sacred of unwritten sports rules: Protect your teammates.

So as I’m pondering this dilemma, a possible (albeit ugly) solution does come to mind. During these bench-clearing brawls, it’s not just MLB players who join the melee. It’s coaches, too; and some of those guys are really getting up there in years. I then remembered the time a few years back when Don Zimmer charged Pedro Martinez who, in self defense, pushed an already stumbling Zimmer down to the ground. (Martinez caught hell for that in the media, but I honestly always thought Zimmer was lucky that nothing worse happened to him.) In any case, as I was writing the “What if” post I thought to myself, “Well, if I were ever in one of those brawls, my best bet would be to find a guy like Zimmer…”


I finished my post by posing this question to the readers: “My question to you, the regular fan sitting in the dugout, is this: What would you do and why?”

Lo and behold, Chairman Gau gave a concise answer that still managed to touch on all of the major themes that I had been considering. Here are his golden words verbatim:

“I think that I go out there, swinging, and go down in infamy. Maybe go find Don Zimmer or some other old dude.”

So Chairman Gau, with your countless insights into the game of baseball, off-color humor, and willingness to admit that in an MLB brawl your best shot at respectability would be to find Don Zimmer, you have contributed to the conversation on this blog more than any of the other six billion people on this planet. As such, My Baseball Fantasy proudly presents you with "The 2008 Hillary Clinton Conversation Award."

Congratulations, Chairman Gau!

Kerry Wood If He Could

It seems like it was yesterday. But it was really a decade ago. Kerry Wood striking out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field on his way to winning Rookie of the Year. Back then, it seemed like the sky was the limit for his potential. But as it turned out, he never once won 15 games in a season.

I remember Wood being asked about his 20-strikeout game on the tenth anniversary of it. He replied that he does watch it from time to time, such as when a friend will call him and say it's on ESPN Classic or something like that. One of the things that Wood said he notices about that game is how big the strike zone was. (Hmm... I'll keep that in mind the next time I hear of a pitcher striking out 20 major league batters in 9 innings.)

The moment for which I'll most remember Wood's time with the Cubs was when he hit the game-tying 3-run homer in Game 7 of the 2003 NLCS against the Marlins. Unfortunately, his pitching arm had reached its limit for that season, and he couldn't quite carry the Cubs into the World Series. He gave it his all, though.

Sadly, injuries bogged down his Cub career. For me, Wood's low point came when he was involved in criticizing Steve Stone and the media a few years ago during spring training. I remember Stoney's response was, "We already know that Kerry's mouth is in shape. The question is whether or not his arm is."

Sometimes the truth hurts.

From a business perspective, I can see why Hendry is letting Wood go. Yeah, he had a great season last year, but his history of injuries is still looming. That, coupled with the emergence of Carlos Marmol, meant that Wood wouldn't get the "big bucks" from the Cubs. Even though Wood says he would have accepted a one year deal with the Cubs, it seems that the organization is comfortable turning the page.

It's just another reminder that major league baseball is a business. We'll see where Wood ends up. The crazy thing is that he could go on to become one of the game's top closers over the next five years. Wouldn't that be just like the Cubs?

Still here

Yes, this blog is still alive. I'm in the process of moving, so I don't have Internet at home right now...

Here are a few quick baseball thoughts:

• If Carlos Quentin, Jose Contreras, and Scott Linebrink hadn't been injured near the end of the season, then the White Sox would have been a more formidable playoff team. (But the Rays were probably still better.)
• Jim Hendry overpaid for both Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome. However, I'm more concerned about the Cubs' farm system. I'm not sure how I feel about Hendry's 4-year extension. Yes, he built the first Cubs team to make the playoffs in back-to-back years, but I don't know that I would say the future is "bright" for this team. How Hendry handles Ryan Dempster's contract will be an interesting sign of things to come. (My view: Don't overpay for Dempster.) And the Cubs need to have better "top prospects" than Felix Pie in their farm system--especially when it comes to pitching.
• I don't blame Lou Piniella at all for the the Cubs' failures in the previous two playoffs. Last year he took a lot of heat for pulling Zambrano out of the game "too early." In my view, Piniella was trying to win the World Series, not trying to ride Zambrano's arm off in the first game of the playoffs just "to get there." It's a team game, and since all of Zambrano's teammates were stinking it up against Arizona, they got swept. Regarding the series against the Dodgers this year, people were upset that Piniella batted Fukodome second in Game 1 and played him at all in Game 2. Well, which other left-handed bat was he supposed to put in the lineup?
• As for the Rays and Phillies, these are the two teams that I wanted to see in the World Series if it couldn't be Chicago. I'd prefer to see the Phillies win just because those players have been around longer. But if the Rays win it, well, that would certainly make for a nice story.
• Congrats to C-Lauff for winning the UPL. In a strange bit of irony, I'm the one who ended up find out "how fifth place taste."

Okay, that's all for now; and yes, we'll have hot stove on this blog. It wouldn't be a true baseball blog without it.

Singin' the Cubbie Blues

It might take another hundred years, but some day Eddie Vedder will be right.



(BTW, I always pictured this song as being sung by depressed, drunk Cubs fans after yet another loss. And besides, this song would lose its charm if the Cubs actually did go all the way.)

What a game

Yeah, I'm glad that the Sox won tonight. But even better, it's how they did it. What a game. A total team effort.

And one other thing. Back when the Sox first traded for Ken Griffey Jr., I was curious as to how things would play out. I didn't expect him to bat .290 and play a Gold Glove center field, but I was hoping that he could at least contribute--and maybe even make a difference in a big game.

Griffey's numbers haven't been great, and he doesn't play center the way he used to. But it's been enjoyable to see him have fun playing for the Sox these past few months; and, oh by the way, he did help make the difference tonight.

Coolstandings

Earlier this year I noticed a new feature in ESPN's MLB standings. In the last few columns they started showing what appeared to be percentages showing the likelihood that the team would win their division, the wild card, or make the playoffs in general. Today I finally checked out what these Coolstandings mean.

And for what it's worth, back on July 5th Coolstandings had these five teams as the most likely to finish the season in the playoffs:

TEAM	POFF
Chicago Cubs	82.6
Philadelphia Phillies	79.0
Tampa Bay Rays	77.8
Chicago White Sox	68.9
Boston Red Sox	67.6

I imagine many baseball fans have already read about Coolstandings, but if you haven't, then you might be interested in checking it out.